Bournemouth’s decision to stay calm during Marco Rose’s difficult start has been followed by a sharp improvement in results. The team lost three and drew three of its first six Premier League matches, but has since won six games in all competitions, including three in the league that lifted it to eighth in the table.
Rose took charge after Andoni Iraola left in the summer. Bournemouth’s opening run prompted media speculation about the new coach’s future, but Rose continued to point to encouraging performances even when results were poor. Iraola, too, had gone nine Premier League games without a win at the start of his Bournemouth tenure before going on to make a significant impact.
The low point came in a 5-1 defeat to Chelsea. Yet the match statistics offered some support for Rose’s view that the scoreline was harsh: Chelsea scored five times from 1.1 expected goals, while Bournemouth recorded 1.38 xG. The home side’s goals included two from outside the box by Jordan Henderson, one of them a free-kick, and a deflected Morgan Rogers effort.
Bournemouth had also seen late goals undo them in earlier matches. Manchester City scored in the 84th minute to win 2-1 after Bournemouth had led, Everton equalised in the 90th minute in a 1-1 draw, and Newcastle rescued a 2-2 draw with an 88th-minute goal. Bournemouth also twice took the lead against Brentford before drawing 2-2.
The team won the expected-goals battle in four of its first six matches. Opta Analyst’s expected-points model, based on the quality and quantity of chances in each game, gave Bournemouth 8.4 expected points at a time when they had three actual points and sat 18th. That figure placed them comfortably in mid-table by the model’s measure.
Since the Chelsea defeat, Bournemouth have scored 16 goals from 16.4 xG across six wins in all competitions. Their victories came against Sturm Graz and Milan in the Europa League, Aston Villa in the League Cup, and Sunderland, Manchester United and Leeds in the Premier League. They have conceded just one goal in that run: Henderson’s free-kick against Chelsea.
The schedule has eased compared with the opening six league fixtures, which included Manchester City, Newcastle, Liverpool and Chelsea, with three of those matches away from home. But Bournemouth’s subsequent opponents have also included Milan, Aston Villa and Leeds, while the club’s recent league wins have moved it up to eighth. Its season-long expected-points total has risen to 15.4, behind only Arsenal, Manchester City and Nottingham Forest, according to the article.
Evanilson has contributed by scoring in each of his past four league appearances, with those four goals coming from 2.8 xG. Bournemouth have also restricted the quality of opponents’ chances, allowing an average of 0.81 xG during their six-match winning run.
Rose said before the Leeds win that the team’s response to setbacks mattered more than claiming to have transformed it. His steady emphasis on the positive aspects of performances helped Bournemouth maintain belief while results lagged behind.
Sources: The Guardian Sport.