Australia has reached the Rugby League World Cup knockout stage with three wins from three matches and remains the team to beat on home soil as it pursues a fourth consecutive title. But according to a Guardian analysis by Jack Snape, the Kangaroos’ most serious problems lie within their own camp before Sunday’s semi-final against Samoa at Allianz Stadium in Sydney.
Snape identifies pressure on coach Kevin Walters and a forward pack that has been humbled in the tournament as concerns, along with a wave of free-agency speculation set to dominate the build-up. For the hosts, there is little to gain and much to lose, the analysis says.
The warning comes after Tonga’s win over Samoa in Parramatta, which the article describes as the tournament’s finest spectacle, played before a capacity crowd and thousands of flags. The intensity remained high for 80 minutes even though a semi-final place was already secured, and a disallowed Samoan try late in the match suggested either side would test Australia. Both squads include players who would be comfortable in Australia’s green and gold, including Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Brian To’o and Stephen Crichton for Samoa, and Isaiya Katoa and Rob Toia for Tonga.
Tonga’s reward is a semi-final against New Zealand, the side that should have beaten Australia in the opening round and possesses the tournament’s most imposing forward line-up, according to the analysis. New Zealand have scored 160 points in wins over the Cook Islands and Fiji since that opener, with Jahrome Hughes and Casey McLean — scorer of four tries against Fiji — providing class and strike, though Kalyn Ponga is injured.
Australia has improved since its lucky escape against New Zealand, when two intercepts and two Jack Bostock tries helped overturn the result, and has since beaten Fiji and the Cook Islands. But the Kangaroos trailed in both pool matches. Against Fiji they briefly looked set to fall two tries behind with half an hour left before a video referee intervention sparked a turnaround; an early second-half burst settled the Cook Islands game. The mistakes and lack of cohesion from Australia’s first two matches, however, have not been shaken off.
The analysis also questions Australia’s forward approach. New Zealand averaged five more metres per set than the Kangaroos, who struggled to build momentum against Fiji. Australia’s choice of mobile forwards rather than bigger, more physical options means the team will need to attack down the edges and stretch opposing defensive lines. Walters is portrayed as a likeable dressing-room presence rather than a tactician or taskmaster, with his best quality perhaps his willingness to let a talented roster play.
Selection and contracts add further distraction. Reece Walsh appears likely to keep the fullback spot ahead of James Tedesco after his performance against the Cook Islands and his success under Walters in England last year. Sam Walker seems to have fallen below Tom Dearden in the halves after not playing against the Cook Islands, and he is also without a club after being cut adrift by the Roosters amid a contract stand-off. Walker is among several Kangaroos in negotiations as the tournament reaches its decisive stage, along with Latrell Mitchell, Cam Munster, Harry Grant, Liam Martin, Bradman Best and Bostock. Against Samoa, the article suggests, Australia may find more motivation than money.
Sources: The Guardian Sport.