Australia and New Zealand advanced from Group A as expected and remain widely tipped to meet in the Rugby League World Cup final on 15 November. But Tonga and Samoa have created an alternative possibility, with both Pacific nations reaching the semi-finals after strong campaigns.
Tonga won all three of their group matches and will face New Zealand. Samoa, runners-up at the 2022 tournament, meet Australia in a rematch of that final. The prospect of either team going all the way has raised hopes that the competition could produce a surprise champion and challenge the dominance of its traditional powers.
Tonga’s semi-final against New Zealand carries recent history. Tonga beat the Kiwis 25-14 in the Pacific Championships two years ago to reach their first final at an elite tournament. They also made the World Cup semi-finals in 2017, having stunned New Zealand in the group stage, before losing 20-18 to England.
Samoa reached the 2022 final after beating England 27-26 in a golden-point semi-final. They became only the sixth team to reach a men’s World Cup final, joining Australia, New Zealand, Great Britain, England and France. Australia have won 10 of the past 11 tournaments, including the last three, while New Zealand claimed the other.
The Pacific sides met in the quarter-finals of the previous World Cup, when Samoa won 20-18. Tonga took the same scoreline in their recent group match, which Samoa coach Ben Gardiner described as a memorable occasion, praising the crowd and the atmosphere around the fixture.
The teams’ progress reflects both their playing quality and the significance of representing their heritage. Nine players in the group-match squads had featured in this year’s State of Origin series, the annual contest between New South Wales and Queensland. Tonga half-back Isaiya Katoa praised the intensity of the match and the influence of coach Kristian Woolf, who has led Tonga since 2014.
Both Tonga and Samoa are coached by Australians with NRL experience. Their squads have also benefited from rugby league’s eligibility rules: since 2016, players have been able to represent a tier-one nation, such as Australia or New Zealand, and a tier-two nation, provided they play for only one country in a calendar year or at a World Cup. The system has enabled players with Pacific heritage to represent their family backgrounds.
The article also points to financial support for the region. In July, Australia’s government announced A$250m over 10 years for the Pacific Rugby League Partnership, intended to create opportunities in Papua New Guinea, Tonga, Samoa and Fiji.
The tournament has been reduced from 16 teams to 10, and the group stage’s one-sided results have renewed concerns about the gap between established powers and other nations. Former England international Ryan Hall argued that a World Cup should showcase the sport more broadly and include more than 10 teams. For rugby league to grow, the performances of Tonga and Samoa offer evidence that new contenders can bring both competitive quality and strong public interest.
Sources: BBC Sport.